中国科学院大气物理研究所段晚锁 男 博导
作者：科大科院考研网 发表时间：2019-12-19 来源：研招办
科院考研推荐链接：
研究方向
海气相互作用，天气、气候可预报性，集合预报，目标观测等
招生信息
欢迎有志于从事天气、气候动力学及可预报性研究的青年教师及学生（本科生及硕士研究生）报考
招生专业
070601-气象学
070620-地球流体力学
070701-物理海洋学
070620-地球流体力学
070701-物理海洋学
招生方向
海气相互作用
天气、气候可预报性; 集合预报，资料同化和目标观测
天气、气候可预报性; 集合预报，资料同化和目标观测
教育背景
2000-09--2003-07 中科院大气物理研究所 （气象学）研究生/博士学位
1997-09--2000-07 昆明理工大学 （应用数学专业）研究生/硕士
1991-09--1995-07 山西大学 （基础数学）本科/学士
1997-09--2000-07 昆明理工大学 （应用数学专业）研究生/硕士
1991-09--1995-07 山西大学 （基础数学）本科/学士
教授课程
地球流体动力学
非线性大气和海洋动力学
非线性大气和海洋动力学
获奖与荣誉
（1）入选"国家百千万人才工程"，被授予国家“有突出贡献的中青年专家”荣誉称号，2019
（2） 中科院青年创新促进会优秀会员，2016
（3）“中国科学院青年人才创新促进会”会员，2011
（4） 中科院卢嘉锡青年人才奖，2009
（5） 中科院大气物理研究所“2009年度先进工作者”，2009
（6） 全国优秀青年气象科技工作者，2006
（7） 全国优秀博士论文，2006
（8） 中国科学院优秀博士论文，2005
发表论文
(1)On the use of near-neutral backward Lyapunov vectors to get reliable ensemble forecasts in coupled ocean-atmosphere systems. Climate Dynamics, 2019
(2) Sensitivity on tendency perturbations of tropical cyclone short-range intensity forecasts generated by WRF. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2019.
(3)近海台风立体协同观测科学试验。地球科学进展，2019。
(4)Exploring sensitive area in the tropical Indian Ocean for the El Nino predictions: an implication for targeted observation. Journal of Oceanology and Limnology, 2019. 通讯作者
(5)Using a nonlinear forcing singular vector approach to reduce model error effects in ENSO forecasting. Weather and Forecasting, 2019. 通讯作者
(6)始扰动振幅和集合样本数对CNOPs集合预报的影响。大气科学，2019，已接收。通讯作者
(7)Season-dependent predictability barrier for two types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events revealed by an approach to data analysis for predictability. Climate Dynamics, 2019. 通讯作者
(8)数值天气预报、气候预测的集合预报方法：思考与展望。气候与环境研究，2019。第一作者
(9)Indian Ocean Dipole-related predictability barriers induced by initial errors in the tropical Indian Ocean in a CGCM. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2019. 通讯作者
(10)Season-dependent predictability and error growth dynamics for La Niña predictions. Climate Dynamics, 2019. 通讯作者
(11)The Initial Condition Errors Occurring in the Indian Ocean Temperature That Cause “Spring Predictability Barrier” for El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. JGR-Ocean, 2019. 通讯作者
(12)Ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone track with orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2019. 通讯作者
(13)The role of initial signals in the tropical Pacific Ocean in predictions of negative Indian Ocean Dipole events. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences. 2018. 通讯作者
(14) Progress in ENSO prediction and predictability study. National Science Review. 2018.
(15)Asymmetry of the predictability limit of the warm ENSO phase. Geophysical Research Letters. 2018.
(16)The application of the orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations method to typhoon track ensemble forecasts. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences. 2018. 通讯作者
(17)Impact of SST anomaly events over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension on the "summer prediction barrier".Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2018.
(18)北京地区一次空气重污染过程的目标观测分析[J]. 气候与环境研究. 2018. 通讯作者
(19)"Summer Predictability Barrier" of Indian Ocean Dipole Events and Corresponding Error Growth Dynamics. JGR-Ocean, 2018. 通讯作者
(20)Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part II: model uncertainty. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2018.
(21)Investigating the initial errors that cause predictability barriers for IOD events using CMIP5 model outputs. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2018. 通讯作者
(22) Towards optimal observational array for dealing with challenges of El Niño-Southern Oscillation predictions due to diversities of El Niño. Climate Dynamics, 2018.第一作者
(23)季风与ENSO的选择性相互作用：年循环和春季预报障碍的影响。大气科学，2018
(24)粒子滤波同化在厄尔尼诺-南方涛动目标观测中的应用。大气科学，2018. 第一作者
(25)Predictability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events.Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Science, 2018. 第一作者
(26)The application of nonlinear local Lyapynov vectors to the Zebiak-Cane model and their performance in ensemble prediction. Clim Dyn. 2017.
(27)耦合模式中北太平洋和北大西洋海表面温度年代际可预报性和预报技巧的季节依赖性，地球科学进展，2017.
(28)The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects.Science China: Earth Sciencess, 2017. 通讯作者
(29)On the "spring predictability barrier" for strong El Nino events as derived from an intermediate coupled model ensemble prediction system. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, 2017. 通讯作者
(30)Nonlinearity Modulating Intensities and Spatial Structures of Central Pacific- and Eastern Pacific-El Niño Events. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2017.第一作者
(31)Relationship between optimal precursors for Indian Ocean Dipole events and optimally growing initial errors in its prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2017.
(32)Reducing the prediction uncertainties of high-impact weather and climate events: an overview of studies at LASG. Journal of Meteorological Research. 2017.第一作者
(33)Numerical Analysis of the Mixed 4th-Order Runge-Kutta Scheme of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Approach for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation Model, Adv. Appl. Math. Mech., 2016.
(34)The role of nonlinear forcing singular vector tendency error in causing the "spring predictability barrier" for ENSO. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2016.第一作者
(35)IOD-related optimal initial errors and optimal precursors for IOD predictions from reanalysis data. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences. 2016，通讯作者
(36)Seasonal predictability of sea surface temperature anomalies over the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension: low in summer and high in winter, JGR-Ocean, 2016,通讯作者
(37)Time-scale Decomposed Threshold Regression Downscaling Approach to Forecasting South China Early Summer Rainfall, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2016,通讯作者
(38)Relationship between optimal precursory disturbances and optimally growing initial errors associated with ENSO events: Implications to target observations for ENSO prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, 2016.通讯作者
(39)Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions, Climate Dynamics,2016. 通讯作者
(40)Comparison of constant and time-variant optimal forcing approaches in El Niño simulations by using the Zebiak-Cane model. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2016. 通讯作者
(41)An approach to generating mutually independent initial perturbations for ensemble forecasts: orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations. J. Atmos. Sci., 2016. 第一作者
(42)Application of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation to Targeted Observation Studies of the Atmosphere and Ocean, J. Meteor. Res,. 2015
(43)关于线性奇异向量和条件非线性最优扰动差别的一个注记。气候与环境研究，2015，通讯作者
(44)The influence of boreal winter extratropical North Pacific Oscillation on Australian spring rainfall, Clim Dyn, 2015, 通讯作者
(45) Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and the "spring predictability barrier" for El Nino predictions. Duan Wansuo, Mu Mu, Chapter 5 in Climate Change edited by Chin-Pei Chang, Michael Ghil, Mojib Latif, and John M. Wallace. World Scientific Series on Asian-Pacific Weather and Climate, 2015.
(46)Comparison of the initial errors most likely to cause a spring predictability barrier for two types of El Nino event. Clim Dyn, 2015, 通讯作者
(47) Interannual Relationship between the Winter Aleutian Low and Rainfall in the Following Summer in South China, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett, 2015,通讯作者
(48) The initial errors that induce a significant “spring predictability barrier” for El Nino events and their implications for target observations:results from an earth system model,Clim Dyn, 2015,第一作者
(49) Target observations for improving initialization of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events forecasting, National Science Review,2015, 通讯作者
(50) The “winter predictability barrier” for IOD events and its error growth dynamics: results from a fully coupled GCM, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 2014, 通讯作者
(51) Influence of Positive/Negative Indian Ocean Dipole on Pacific ENSO through Indonesian Throughflow: results from Sensitivity Experiments, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2014, 通讯作者
(52) Revealing the most disturbing tendency error of Zebiak-Cane model associated with El Nino predictions by nonlinear forcing singular vector approach，Climate Dynamics，2014，第1作者
(53) Season-dependent predictability and error growth dynamics of Pacific Decadal Oscillation-related sea surface temperature anomalies，Climate Dynamics，2014，第1作者
(54) Study on the “winter persistence barrier” of Indian Ocean dipole events using observation data and CMIP5 model outputs，Theoretical and Applied Climatology，2014，通讯作者
(55) A SVD-based ensemble projection algorithm for calculating conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation, SCIENCE CHINA: Earth Sciences，2014，第2作者
(56) Using CMIP5 model outputs to investigate the initial errors that cause the “spring predictability barrier” for El Niño events, SCIENCE CHINA: Earth Sciences, 2014，通讯作者
(57) ENSO预测的目标观测敏感区在热带太平洋海温的多模式集合预报中的应用，大气科学，2014，通讯作者
(58) Time-dependent nonlinear forcing singular vector-type tendency error of the Zebiak-Cane model, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 2014，通讯作者
(59)The combined effect of initial error and model error on ENSO prediction uncertainty generated by the Zebiak-Cane model, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 2014，通讯作者
(60) The spatial patterns of initial errors related to the “winter predictability barrier” of the Indian Ocean dipole, Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., 2014，通讯作者
(61) Conditions under which CNOP Sensitivity Is Valid for Tropical Cyclone Adaptive Observations，Quarterly J. RMS，2013，通讯作者
(62) 条件非线性最优扰动方法在可预报性研究中的应用，大气科学，2013，第2作者
(63) 数值天气预报和气候预测可预报性研究的若干动力学方法，气候与环境研究，2013，第1作者
(64) Climate Variability and Predictability at Various Time Scales，Advances in Meteorology，2013，第3作者
